"tomb" <me@privacy.net> wrote in message
news:uto7e.2234$t85.53@newssvr21.news.prodigy.com. ..
> Michael Pardee wrote:
> | and the era of cars with 200 hp engines is probably
> | coming to a permanent end. They are simply becoming obsolete. The
> | new muscle cars will be hybrids.
>
> That's right, about friggin' time we came to our senses.
>
> a Tree Hugger (driving an old Civic when I drive)
>
>
I'm a conservative myself, and a skeptic of the Hubbert curve. (The
"superspike" doesn't fit the curve at all.) I also feel it is just as well
we haven't been conserving gasoline up to this point, because conserving a
resource that is limited by production (as oil is in the contemporary sense)
during times of plenty has the same effect as wasting it does during times
of shortage. Because of the free-spending usage in our past we have room to
conserve now.

We have been using petroleum for fuel because it has been the cheapest and
most plentiful fuel available. But we are clearly entering a watershed time.
The problem is not that we are "running out of oil" - we've been doing that
since the first barrel was pumped, and no amount of conservation will change
the end of this path, only the rate. But world-wide demand will put rapidly
rising pressure on production for probably a generation... maybe more.
Production will inevitably increase (in complete defiance of Hubbert) but
the economics and politics surrounding the increase won't be pretty.

In 2002 my wife and I saw that whatever was going to happen to gas prices it
wasn't going to be good. Gasoline was about $1.50 per gallon and the price
was becoming unstable. We did the research and decided on our second new car
in 30 years: a Toyota Prius. On newsgroups people were scoffing at the idea
of ever recovering the premium over the equivalent Corolla by saving 40% of
$1.50 gasoline. But the car we traded in (a Nissan 300ZX) got 20 mpg and the
Prius gets 45-50 mpg, so gas prices have to rise to about $3.50 before we
pay as much for gas as we did then. The effect is to make gas prices
unimportant to our household and vacation budgets.

I have been a proponent of hybridization since I heard about it around 20
years ago. It is only now becoming ready for prime time. The concept of
using a 200 hp engine to drag a 5 passenger car around town or to cruise at
freeway speeds is ludicrous. Sizing the engine for freeway hill climbs and
using electric drive for the low power needs and to provide acceleration is
a lot smarter.

Mike